Friday, 6 December 2013

Is there a future for Newspapers? What? Is there ever and here's why.



I find myself a lot, in constant debates (arguments really) about media and digital. Traditional Media Versus Digital Media. Offline Versus Online. Effective Advertising V Social Media. Constant.

Admen get cranky with me because, although they know I'm second generation Ad Agency with some good industry stature behind me (and some less so) plus some longstanding Internet experience, as you'll see on my profile. That makes it worse for them.

But they read this blog and see me and "my like", as a "digital evangelist". Re-born poacher.

I'm not. 

But it's like being asked if I have a disease.
Because digital is resented by those who don't take the trouble to understand it.

I am in fact, an Ad man that's interested in what consumers are doing and especially the manner in which they're consuming news and media, notably Newspapers. And subsequently, how they consume Advertising with online video.

Because that is what I've always been about - and frankly, what all 'Ad people' should be about too. Arguing this shift is like standing on Dollymount beach, trying to push out the waves.

It is such an exciting, dramatic revolution.

And what I try to argue, is to convince those media pals, to take the sunglasses off their head and to look at digital as a huge opportunity - and not as a threat. Businesspeople too.

To try to stop them go the way of booksellers, music companies, DVD rental businesses and others, the so many traditional businesses that ignored digital and did so at their peril. Indeed, most used legal issues, notably record companies, to try stifle it. And they all perished.

Some businesses indeed, have since embraced it, but possibly too little, too late. 

So what happened to their businesses?

Book sales are up! Music sales are up! Movie downloads are up! 

The web actually increased their businesses, albeit as it turned out because of their neglect, to benefit other visionaries at the demise of those traditionalists. If only they had embraced it rather than fight it and try to see the opportunity.

"Visionaries" indeed, like Amazon, Netflix and ITunes who did see what was going on. These aren't "new" business ideas but rather better ways of selling the old ones. That's all.

It is exactly the same for Newspapers.

Why did it happen? 

Because they understood the Web brought more people, more access to these products, with more convenience. And so people, bought more

If you make it easier for people to buy, they will.

I can buy a book now, at my kitchen table rather than drive to a bookstore. I can buy an Album now in my sitting room, rather than drive to a record store. 247. And even then when I did make the drive, they might not have it. 

So why wouldn't I prefer to use online?

I can after all, get my groceries delivered to my door. I can watch dvd movies on my phone. I can bank on the street (check my balance, transfer money) waiting for a bus. I can buy that shirt, suit, shoes, jumper...and have it delivered same day. I can pay my car tax, my esb bill, my phone bill....instantly online sitting in my car. Done.

Because that's what I, you and consumers want.
Like it or not.

And as so often I have to explain, I can read my newspaper, for free, on my phone all day - anywhere - without having to go and buy it. I can get my news as it happens, instead of waiting for 6 or 9 O'clock bulletins or waiting for tomorrow's newspaper.

Because that's what I and you want and we will want more of it, not less.

Can we all at least, accept that?

And therefore, we have to accept that we'll all need to do more of it.

In relation to Newspapers particularly, for these very reasons, people will buy less print editions and view the online versions more, in time. Hard as it is to accept, some day in the future we simply won't print Newspapers anymore. There will be no need to. But that's not the end of Newspapers as many confuse it!

You know what? that's the greatest opportunity Newspapers have had. Ever, as I'll try to explain.

And why are we all struggling with it? 

Because newspapers are/were run by newspapermen shock! (yep, men). The Ben Bradlees.

Nothing wrong with that (!) but understandably, they believe ingrained in their psyche, that what comes off the press is more important than what's on their website. When it's exactly the other way around - or will be soon. And the new younger breed of newspaper people are getting that.

Like DVD Stores thought their bricks and mortars shops were more important or book shops or record shops or retailers, than their websites. They were wrong too.

Whereas, if newspapers saw their website as a new, easier, quicker better way to deliver their content, they'd see a resurgence in revenue. 

I know you doubt that revenue bit, but bear with me.

Forgive me too, for singling out one Newspaper as an example, but topically, today's INM ABC data appeared and I'll use those stats because they stand out (as I've blogged before) as being one group that has made the leap brilliantly. 

And I do know titles like The Mail are becoming online effective as too, the Irish Times and others will.

But look, let me take the example at what's happening at independent.ie, an excellent all-round site, to illustrate this.

(Indeed an aside, as I'm writing this, I'm watching Zuma announce at a live Presser, that Nelson Mandela's has died and only one site has that news now. Independent.ie)

Today's ABC ONLINE numbers show them with 64 million monthly impressions. 

Up +51% in a year with a staggering, 6 million unique monthly readers or 354,000 viewers a day. Not bad in a country of what, 4.5 million people!

See? People want online. And people want news!

Now look at a print example. 

The Sunday Independent has circa 900,000/1 million readers a week. Biggest selling newspaper, extremely strong and has been for years. 

So call that 4 million readers a month, brilliant as it is (and it is), but it's 4 million, compared to 6 million online....so the online site is worth more than a month of Sunday Independents. That's the sort of stuff that needs to register amongst newspapermen as it has, at INM.

Reporters whom I know and love (kind of) talk about the downfall of news, an area where I've also worked. Whereas in fact, independent.ie, and other newspapers titles, are driven by news! It's news that's delivering the impressions.

Hard news but better breaking news. News is and will be, the hook.

But now it's news with audio (the Anglo tapes for example) which newspapers could never offer before. It was a newspaper, The Toronto Star, that broke the Rob Ford video recently. Now it's news with video (something new too), now it's news instantly (no deadlines per se, which has been the scourge of newsdesks all our lives). News as it happens, news on your mobile from guess what, a newspaper.

Now it's news with unlimited printing (digital can add pages at little cost) and consequently at relatively little cost. Online is cheap to "print".

Now it's news with a global audience so the Irish abroad (and there's more of them now as we regrettably know) who can read the newspaper online, instead of having to search abroad for a shop that might sell the printed paper at an inflated cost.

But news remains the hook and most importantly, news from a trusted source, a trusted brand that's been delivering news for a hundred years. Which only a newspaper has that cache. The Anglo Tapes were investigative online news, the start of new journalism.

Fabulous opportunity or what?

It just requires an early mindset change. Both print and digital should keep going in tandem and in fact, use them combined, but expect that balance to shift in time, to more digital readers. They're still readers....just in a new delivery ecosystem.

INM online, have +51% growth in a year, some achievement that would be nigh impossible to deliver in printed editions. Imagine another year of that? And it is doable by attracting competitor eyeballs back.

But....so they all say, you can't make money from digital newspapers because they're free and you lose the cover price revenue? Yep, you do.

But if you're telling me that you can't make more money from more readers, then I'm telling you, you don't understand advertising. 

Can you make money from 64 million impressions and 6 million unique readers a month as an example? You sure can. Exactly as you can with 6 million monthly print readers!

What business wouldn't give to have 64 million impressions in this market?

So how do you convert that into revenue then?

Firstly, Ad money follows audience, follows eyeballs - as sure as night follows day. The more readers you have, the more Ads you get. Trust me on that.

So keep building the online audience, even perhaps promoting it in the print edition. Sacrilegious? No, it's mindset change (think about it).

I think it's critical to remember that more and more advertiser money is going online. You are therefore, in a growth sector so the 'pool' of money for what you're doing is increasing.

However, it is true that the current low cpm rates for impressions and pre-rolls won't do it. Those rates have to change upwards before that style of Ad revenue will start contributing and there's no short-term sign of that. 

When did we decide or agree that one day's newspaper reading for one person was worth circa 2 euro but a thousand views online was worth as low as 3 euros? Newspapers didn't, the market did, but everyone rolled over. Effectively they've slashed comparable print rates by -270%. The readers are the same.

Therefore, Newspapers should start pushing up those rates and stop giving away their space cheaply to networks or low rate advertisers. Forget them for now. Like in print, there's a price you just won't accept. Let digital not be different and hold your line.

In a recession? Yes.

Who needs who here? 

Remember, this is a small market and advertisers will need you as you deliver high audiences that simply can't be ignored. They can't keep ignoring you as that audience builds, so they will be back at the higher, reasonable price because your readers will be worth more to them. I guarantee you.

But it'll be hard to come back from low ad rates when they do.

Newspapers also fail (delivering in this example, say 345,000 impressions a day) by offering confusing formats. Formats need to become standardised, exactly as print advertising is. 

Forget MPU's, Banner Ads, expanding banners, roll-overs....standardise the formats so traditional buyers can understand better. 

I did a recent campaign in October for a well-known brand. We produced one press ad version, one 48 sheet poster and wait for it, over 60 different digital formats. Time, money and fed up. More hassle for less money.

That'll turn Agencies and Advertisers away who constantly complain that it's "too labour intensive" and it is.

Why not half pages, quarter pages, third of pages? Just like we've always done in a manner which Ad Agencies and their clients understand. Keep it simple, keep it comparable and cross-sell print with digital.

At the moment, we force advertisers to develop new, labour intensive online formats which cost. Why?

So high audiences will deliver high advertising if you make it easier, through standardised formats and if you hold your rates, at least above the current low cpms.

Secondly, advertising needs packaging. 

Sponsored sections (travel, sport, beauty, culture....) or simply sponsored stings of say, daily weather, daily stock prices, daily...or sponsored events like Budget Day coverage, GAA finals, Rugby international coverage - get advertisers locked in on 6/12 month deals like TV or Radio do.

Every key section, sponsored.

Thirdly, introduce new brands. 

Imagazines are typical of these, appearing both in print and online. Almost like the supplements or features of old, they're a terrific way to deliver smart, quality content online which video brings to life. 

And they're additional revenue through new brand creation.

Fourthly, you can charge for content. 

That old chestnut, the great paywall debate, but after all, why should people expect their news (that I've always paid for), to be free? They don't.

However, the big problem here is, that if you're brave to introduce a paywall, when competitors won't, you'll lose online readers overnight. 

Consequently, perhaps start with niches who will pay. 

Business is a typical niche example where corporates will pay. Perhaps add value by emailing them business news alerts or sms them as business news breaks and/or, give them insights and analysis. Most will simply have to have it either way.

Fifthly, think about your readers as shoppers. 

The Daily Telegraph does reviews of books, music, concerts, sports and so on, but you can also buy a ticket from them, there and then. The Newspaper gets a margin simply by introducing the sale. That is massive revenue potential.

Say, using my example, only 1% of your 64 million impressions click to buy something, which is a low click thru rate, that's 640,000 shoppers a month. Or think of it as one giant department store and then at only 1% conversion....revenue there.

Which leads me lastly, for an opportunity to consider to sell advertisers, not on a simple traditional space basis, but on results. Sell click thrus. 

Suppose a car manufacturer wants website visits from their Ad campaign. 

Sell them those, via the newspaper's ability to get readers to click thru as an add on to their Advertising. 1000 clicks is x euro. That makes advertising in the newspaper, an absolute no-brainer...buying a result. It guarantees Ad money.

Or say online grocery retailers who want to get sign-ups.

Newspapers just need to think differently. As some are. 

But no medium is in a better place

TV is well, much trickier.....and digital is demolishing TV. Consequently, that TV advertising will go digital too as TV stations lose viewers and could easily migrate to newspapers online.

Never, ever, been a better time.
Digital will be won by those who embrace it and learn the lessons of the past.

Finally, I can't leave this conversation without a nod to well-known businesspeople, some are friends of mine, who invested substantially in newspapers and continue to do so.

They were criticised at the time, because seemingly, "it made no sense" and brought me into more rows.

I do hope this goes some way to end those arguments too.
They're not fools, indeed as you all tell me and Newspapers, will get this right.
Just the light switch needs to go on.

If you ask me, I can't think of a better business I'd rather be in right now.

How's that.

Thursday, 5 December 2013

Flipboard. Steve Jobs favourite App. And probably the best App in the world. Ever.



Cut a long story short...

My Iphone (5S 64 running ios 7) was choc full of music downloads. I know, it's a lot of Albums, but consequently I didn't have the phone capacity to download apps or really do anything. And there's no bigger phone.

So I got my fab iTunes Cloud account, transferred the albums off the phone, up to the cloud to stream/download in due course when I need to and now, my phone capacity was back.

So I downloaded Flipboard.

Now I had just forgotten how much my life had fallen apart without Flipboard. I had become a nervous wreck. Lonely, unstable. I stopped showering (okay, I'm exaggerating here, but you get the drift).

Instantly I got my techy stuff back, my music, my art, my books, my news, my videos...the upgrade is even better...if that was possible.

Flipboard's Mike McCue is a genius and although the Twitter App comes close, this is the best of them all. The image above is from Wired where they say Flipboard was a favourite App of Steve Jobs. That does not surprise me.

And it's free.

Treat yourself for Christmas.
Download it now and live again.

Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Cyber Monday was the biggest shopping day in history. It's telling retailers to get their online shop going.



'Cyber Monday', as it's known, was the biggest shopping day in history and largely because online shopping has matured. 

It's now the intuitive choice.

ECommerce is estimated by as reputable a journal as Forbes, to be +21% year on year. Whopping. And the average value of a transaction was 129 us dollars (!) which surprised me. So people buy big ticket items online.

The key story (and we're getting a bit tired of saying it) is the surge in mobile shopping accounting for +17% of the spend and that's up over 50% year on year. Tablets seem to have had the most significant impact with IPads and Kindles showing well.

Apple's IOS was also a star with nearly a quarter of all online sales through these devices so there's a lesson here for retailers.....push your messages out on mobile!!

Of course too, mobile Apps will have helped to steer IOS shoppers into better bargains and better locations, so that's one reason for this growth.

Cyber Monday thrashed all previous records.

So online shopping is where it's at and will continue to impact negatively on pure 'bricks and mortar' retailers. Department Stores will be most hit and then beauty shopping as these two sectors are showing the biggest online activity growth.

Consequently, retailers, need to follow Banks and Book Stores and Music Stores and others, and to start 2014 saying they're going to focus entirely on their online shop and not on their bricks and mortars. Because that's where the fish are swimming.

In time, retail will only exist, online.

Monday, 2 December 2013

Phones are bringing the video revolution into your pocket.

Interesting data from Ooyola (who track online video) on mobile usage, in relation to video.

Most of us would possibly consider our mobile screen to be too small to watch video and it looks like that's not the case. In fact regarding long form video (longer than an hour), people do seem quite comfortable to watch it on their mobile.

More comfortable than on their desktop for example and nearly as much as on connected TV. 

Of course, it's not so much about preference in terms of screen size but rather because of convenience - we all have a mobile phone in our pocket and not a desktop/tv/tablet. So because mobile is handy, it's used more for video.

And them's the facts.

Equally too, the graph is worth looking at for the growth in tablet usage and again signifies, the fall off in desktop preference so hurting companies like Microsoft and HP.

However, the future is bright for video with the acceptability of mobile for watching it. That's another worry dealt with.

Wednesday, 27 November 2013

The death of TV pure and simple. New Nielsen data shows Google + Facebook have a higher audience than TV. Ad Agencies need to start diluting TV spend.



Just when TV thought thought recent reports went unnoticed about their demise....along comes another Car crash.

Following my blog on Monday (which is below this) which highlighted those recent shocking data reports about the demise of TV - through a collapse in ratings, a collapse in subscribers and bizarrely, rising Ad costs - another credible piece of research worsens TV's pain. Both are based on facts and that's what's causing all the trouble. Facts.

This time it might be terminal.

Credible research, because it's current (November 2013) but completely credible because it's from Nielsen - as I often say, the doyenne of TV research. This to be fair is brave by Nielsen because in effect, they are shooting themselves in the foot. But the truth will out.

Facebook AND Google active monthly users, are both going to take over from TV in total reach. That means, more people use Google and Facebook, than TV. 435 million as against 294 million. That's a HUGE difference.

It is the death of TV, nothing less.

Google and Facebook combined, both already have a much larger audience than TV, but of course, there will be duplication between Google and Facebook users.

And yet, time and time again I've said it, Media buyers are spending significantly more of their budgets on TV. Over 55% goes on TV. 

Why oh why? 

Laziness? Sweetheart back end margin deals? What can be the reason for these supposed data-driven buyers? How can the dominant continued use of TV on a Media schedule, to the detriment of online, be justifiable?

And I do understand how it works, having recently owned the biggest media buying Agency in Ireland. But I cannot for the life of me, understand why it's still going on? Perhaps old habits die hard....but it is now, indefensible.

A UK TV Station (UTV) has recently announced plans to start broadcasting in Ireland with all the expense that goes with it. 

With these results now, they might be better off, opening a Facebook page.

Monday, 25 November 2013

The Death of TV and the stats to prove it. Landmark research from BusinessInsider.



Very, very, interesting article from BusinessInsider entitled 'The Death of TV. TV is dying and here are the stats that prove it'. It follows from research by 'Citi Research' and this is a landmark, elaborate, piece of work. 

You'll get the whole story here http://www.businessinsider.com/cord-cutters-and-the-death-of-tv-2013-11

US Pay TV (cable) is having its worst year ever

This links with another blog I wrote on November 8th (which follows in my posts), where Nielsen reports that tablets and mobile will be more advertising important than TV in 2016. It also follows which all of us in the business already know.....TV is dying on its feet (Streamabout is active in online video so we understand the TV market).

Audience ratings "have collapsed" and with all the major TV providers losing subscribers (about 5 million subscribers cancelling). The number of cable subscribers will drop below 40 million for the first time ever. It's something a lot of us knew, but didn't have the data to support it.

Time Warner Cable lost 306,000 cable subs and 24,000 Internet users. 

The CEO of a cable company, Charter Comms, expressed surprise that a staggering "1.3m of his 5.5m customers (a quarter) didn't want TV", they wanted broadband only packages - meaning they're switching online alright, but not to watch TV. 

Even ratings for major sporting events are in decline. Like Baseball...




Like Basketball..



So this is a real example of the shift to Internet where consumers are watching video and not, TV. They're watching shows and movies notably on mobile and probably as part of a broadband/Wifi 'deal' from a Telco. Or from the proliferation of free Wifi at a variety of stores or indeed, from city hotspots. But they're not watching traditional TV programmes, as they air live.

The other fundamental, is that more and more households, now have less "TV's" as we know them but rather, connected boxes like Apple TV or even via their Xbox or an internet set-top box. They want fast Internet access speeds with online content. Nielsen, the doyenne of TV research,  are even reporting this decline.



So if people have less "TV's", they'll watch less TV as it's aired. They now have a global choice of frankly, better content.

Mobile video is on the other hand, booming, with about 40% of all YouTube videos being watched on mobile. Staggering. And again, as you'll know, YouTube video is not TV programming in the main.

Tablets too, are being viewed more during the key TV primetime, so each device has its moment across the day. But if tablets are being used during primetime, advertising effectiveness is diluting.



Of course too, as I've blogged about so many times, Advertising money is not following this shift. Yet. 


Old habits die hard - the US TV Ad revenue is 64 Billion Dollars whilst mobile is a mere 3.4 Billion. It certainly raises questions about TV Agency buyers who are supposed to buy on the basis of data, rather than cosy "back margin" volume deals. 

Most US Advertising money goes on traditional TV by a mile. Yet TV prices are increasing reports Morgan Stanley....as indeed, bizarrely, are cable subscriptions!! Questions should be asked.


The former Time Warner boss, Glenn Britt, nailed it I think, when he said that "the cable business had spent too many years complacently dismissing the competition" and that is such a well worn lesson. 

They have also been actively producing spurious data in vain attempts to try to keep convincing clients that TV is ploughing ahead, when it's not.  

It happened in the music business, it happened in the retail video rental business, it happened in the bookseller business and now it's in the TV business. For me, this is the crux of the matter leading to this downfall.

Rather than dismissing online, they should be embracing it.

Slowly, but surely, the game is up.

Friday, 22 November 2013

Interactive Outdoor Advertising that really works. British Airways.




Ah sorry lads, these are great.

British Airways interactive Posters in London.
They are in real time so they link the flight number (presume by GPS) to the poster showing the actual flight and destination.


It really brings BA's regular services to the attention of people. 
Hard to ignore.
And hard not to smile.

Thursday, 21 November 2013

The most shared Ad of 2013 so far.....and deserves to be. It's a great benefit of online advertising, sharing.



One of the real benefits of online Advertising is that Ads get shared. And they get shared with relevance....unlike TV spots which can't be shared...obviously.

Relevance, because the person who shares them, shares them with someone else whom they think, will like the Ad for whatever reason. Nothing more powerful than a friend sharing something with you and which will normally prompt a conversation, a response.

The most shared Ad of 2013, is The Dove "Real Beauty" sketches having been passed around over 4 million times. Interesting though, one YouTube posting alone has over 58 million views and this is a 3 minute Ad. That's pretty excellent.


And interestingly it's aimed at women who are more likely to share video btw. But it deserves it because it's really a great piece of storytelling, simply shot (which is the essence of the campaign - tell it like it is) and it's real. 

The key to great advertising is simplicity and in particular, empathy. 

If you can empathise with your audience, you're there. This does that. In spades. 

Thursday, 14 November 2013

CBSNews.com to re-create JFK assassination as it happened, 50 years ago, on Social Media.



Lovely idea from CBSNews.com.

To mark the assassination of JFK on November 22, 1963 (yep, 50 years ago) they will be streaming the exact news, as it happened, minute-by-minute. So a complete re-creation of the tragic day.

We all know the iconic Walter Cronkite reporting on the day itself for CBS. (note the report from Dan Rather here!).




They'll continue it for 4 days to include the funeral itself and I would think, the swearing in of LBJ on the plane with Jackie Kennedy (to become the 36th President). 

If you want to read a great book about it, look no further than Robert Caro's 'The Passage of Power' possibly the best book I have ever read. Or one of them (because his previous 3 in the series were just as good!). 

CBS will also be live tweeting as it happens too and using Facebook and Instagram. 

Lovely idea to remind you that CBS were at the forefront of news and still are. And a great use of Social Media.

You'll find it here http://www.cbsnews.com/news/schedule-of-cbsnewscoms-live-stream-of-jfk-assassination-broadcast-coverage/ from 630pm GMT.

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

The invisible bicycle helmet. And how two girls are millionaires from it.


An unusual post for me because it's a bit outside of the norm. 

Two girls invent something called "the invisible bicycle helmet" and become millionaires. Watch it and you'll understand why.

The point is that you can only tell this story on Video. It's the video that makes it understandable and real. And it's a video that everyone is talking about.

Pretty amazing stuff.

Tuesday, 12 November 2013

As online video advertising explodes, Twitter is making NO money from it. Are you?





It's a real issue for Twitter but it's also an issue for a lot of online publishers - monetising Video, which is the biggest growth in advertising inventory.

When you share video on your site, exactly as Twitter allows you to do, those videos need to contain some form of advertising in order for the site owner to make money. If you control the video, you control the advertising. But if you don't control it, because you're linking it, you get nothing. Nada.

Whether it's a sponsored sting, or a sponsored mention in-video or a pre-roll....whatever, but if you're embedding someone else's video (like YouTube or Vimeo) you're giving them the Ad money instead. And it's so easily fixed.

When you think of the huge Twitter video sharing audience every day, it's pretty shocking that they are not making any money from it. And particularly after their IPO where they need to start reversing losses and turn profits. 

Cisco forecasts that the video audience will grow to over 13 billion views by 2016 - we know it's huge - and that's a lot of eyeballs, a lot of advertising.

Video advertising is probably becoming the key way to generate Ad money and yet Twitter and publishers, aren't doing it? They hand that money to YouTube - so Twitter is generating cash for YouTube. Mad?

Vine, which Twitter owns, doesn't sell advertising so there's no way Twitter can make money on the explosion of Video. Equally too, online publishers who are linking to video sharing sites, such as YouTube, are doing the same - handing over advertising dollars, pounds and euros to someone else who is monetising that audience in turn.

The cost of hosting video and having your own player is tiny. Not only that, but there are deals out there to allow you to provide a player for free and split the revenue. If Twitter did that today, it would generate millions in advertising, today

Equally any online publishers, starved for cash, can do the same. By uploading their own video, rather than linking it, they can turn those viewers into advertising money. Perhaps develop sponsored video sections nevermind pure in-video advertising. Advertisers want it too.

A publisher should be putting up all Video it can and there's enough brand/corporate/PR video out there to do so now. In fact, those PR/Brand companies WANT it seen so they provide it for free.

It's an easy trick, easy to fix that even Twitter is missing. 
Are you?

Friday, 8 November 2013

Tablets and Phones will be MORE important than TV for Advertising by 2016. Who just said that? Nielsen.



Stunning, possibly earthquaking, report today from Nielsen, the general bastion of all things TV.

A survey undertaken in July/August of this year amongst key advertising buyers, is really causing a stir of seismic proportions. Especially because it comes from such a trusted source - Nielsen.

What they're forecasting is that Tablets and Phones will be more important than TV for Advertising. More important in only 3 years. That's being wrapped in a concluding notion that consequently, 'multi screens' advertising has, and will, become more important for advertisers. Which in some ways is a half-way house and promoting way of doing both - for now.

What's causing the stir, is that the survey was conducted with The Association of National Advertisers (ANA), with almost 99% (a score as high I've never seen) of wait for it, clients, media sellers and Agencies, reporting that Tablets/Phones will be more important than TV in 2016.


Indeed, most of those surveyed (86%) rank the mobile phone as more important for advertising than TV today. That's advertising importance and yet still, advertisers spend more on traditional TV by miles.

64 billion Dollars goes on traditional TV advertising in the US and mobile only gets 3.4 billion. So decisions are still being made, badly.

You'll get all the charts here http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/online/tablets-and-mobile-phones-not-tv-forecast-to-be-most-important-screens-for-advertising-37906/

The Nielsen link is here http://nielsen.com/us/en/press-room/2013/ana-and-nielsen-study-reveals-multi-screen-advertising-to-rise.html 

And what we've got here is the start of a dramatic shift. 

Traditional media companies, advertisers and agencies recognising the importance of digital advertising in a comparable way to TV advertising. That hasn't happened before in officialdom.

And the credibility of the survey, must now be without question unlike perhaps, others that have gone before. Or so it has been argued but not any more.

This could change everything.

Netflix sign a 4 series deal with Marvel. Original content is king.



Netflix announce a deal with Marvel to bring 4 new original online series.

They are four live action series, each with 13 episodes for online broadcasts in 2015. Called "Daredevil", "Iron Fist", "Jessica Jones" and "Luke Cage" and will be rich storytelling - as you might expect from Marvel.

Equally, they will be 'on demand' so all the series episodes launched together as one with a clear aim of developing Netflix further in the family market. Kids will want to see these and they'll only see them on......Netflix.

Last year, Netflix did a TV rights deal with Disney for programming launching in 2016 and Marvel are owned by Disney. It's a big move for Marvel in the online TV space and represents another big move for Netflix.

Great news too for online production companies as Netflix use their cash to develop their own content. It would be difficult to see a similar deal work with a traditional TV station, for example.

Original content will drive the Netflix model on.

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Christmas TV Ads have started but we already have a winner. Stunning spot from Lego.


So the Christmas Ads have started then and we already have a winner!
This is going to be hard to beat.....

A classic piece of Advertising from Amsterdam's 'we are pi'. 
Great copywriting, smashing kids voice and like any Dad out there, you just get it. And Lego is what the Dads buy ("When I was your age son....").

'Let's build'

Dear oh, dear I just want to go home and do this with Jack (8) right now. Because it's a little piece of magic, not about the product itself, but rather about the benefits. I'll keep harping on about that as being key to good advertising.

Bang on the money magnificence. 
This will sell Lego.

Twitter debuts on NYSE today at the high 26 Dollars a share.




The Twitter IPO starts on NYSE today.

Trading will take place starting at 26 us Dollars a share which is at the top end. But as predicted, it's being talked up and up to allow early investors turn a profit. One spread betting company IG, today in The Guardian, are predicting a +70% rise to 43 usd......

In the words of Mandy Rice Davies, well they would, wouldn't they.

Everybody is bullish so a gain is the most likely outcome here today.
It will be the 3rd largest IPO this year but the average one day rise (or 'pop') this year is +17%.

So there's a play on the day but after that....remember Facebook.
There's a lot of bulls out there looking for a quick gain.

UPDATE NOVEMBER 7th - Early trading, shares to go to high of 50 Dollars, drop back to circa 45 Dollars. Huge gains on the day circa +75%. IG were right) 

Tuesday, 5 November 2013

Amazon announce 2 new original series. Another threat to traditional TV.


Original online content is growing, to compete with traditional TV, just as expected.

Following Netflix with 'House of cards' and others, Amazon have announced two new original series which they're producing.

Alpha House, a comedy about US Washington Senators (with John Goodman), goes out on November 15th on Amazon instant. It is written by the great Garry Trudeau of Doonesbury fame.

Betas, a series about social media start ups (yep, could be good), starts at the end of November. Silicon valley friends have their moment in setting up a new Social Media play. 

Both have 11 episodes. They've also 3 kids shows in production.

This is the first time Amazon have produced their own original Series and no doubt, follows Netflix. It allows the online broadcasters to compete for viewers with good, quality programming and is great news again, for the online digital video sector.

But it's more bad news for TV.

Already being hit as viewers switch over to online low cost, programming on subscription, as well as, an ongoing obliteration of their audience by Social Media, now they have a content challenge. Their only hope was to retain viewers because of the content traditional TV offers and even this, is being eroded.

Furthermore, Netflix and Amazon are sitting on big cashpiles, and we understand that they're going to compete to buy broadcast rights for live events - notably big sporting occasions. TV will not be able to compete with them here either.

Even as content providers, the recent YouTube deals show that online broadcasters, as YouTube is, are prepared to pay TV stations less for their content. So that revenue stream, small as it might be right now, is definitely reducing.

And as sure as night follows day, Advertising money follows audience. More and more of it is going online.

Yet, TV Stations persevere in the hope that terrestrial broadcasting will "see off" the continuing online challenge as they try to spin "good news" that's just not credible. They continue to live off in some cases, huge state aid, instead of getting into the space, embracing it and being prepared to re-formulate their model. Like newspapers have been prepared to do.

The ticking clock, just got a lot louder.

YouTube are changing their deals with TV Stations and Movie providers. But in doing it, they're encouraging that old no no. Media brokering.



YouTube is starting to flex its muscle.

In the past, it encouraged TV Stations and Movie makers to put their content up on YouTube in return for what was called a "sweetheart" deal. Basically the content provider (Movie Studios/TV Stations) got 70% of the Ad revenue in return. More favourable terms than other content providers got....but YouTube got good content.

Movie clips, TV programmes, etc.

Not any more.

As those content contracts are being renewed, YouTube are now offering them, 55% of the advertising, with YouTube retaining 45% - so down from the 70%

Basically these are now, the same terms YouTube offers everyone else - so no longer "special deals" for the networks anymore.

However, (I think this is most dangerous part,) YouTube have agreed to "cap" this share - to limit the YouTube take. So they'll take the 45% to a certain amount of money and after that is reached, the TV stations/Movie makers can keep 100% of what's left. Therefore, if the movie/TV stations (content providers) get more Ad money than the "cap", they keep it all. What's being called the "threshold".

So if the content producers sell more advertising at higher prices, they benefit in full. And this deal encourages them to do that. They will charge their advertisers more than they're actually paying.

In my mind, this is media brokering at its worst. An activity which has always been frowned upon, if not considered illegal, and certainly considered sharp practice. 

The traditional Ad Agency model of commission (and in this case, the TV stations can be considered Ad Agencies because they're "selling on" other media), is based on a % of the true media cost. An advertiser rightly expects that the Ad Agency to be paying the media the exact price shown on the invoice and simply deducting a commission.

If for example, an Ad is 100 quid, it's charged to the client at 100 quid, less 15% commission (or whatever the agreed commission is). Transparent, above board. 

In this way potentially however, if the same Ad is 100 quid, but the seller negotiates it for less, say 70 quid, and yet still charges the client the 100 quid, that's media brokering. You're charging more than you're actually paying.

Ad Agencies could have made fortunes (I could have) if we behaved as media brokers. Wholesaling media if you like.

And the same TV networks would be livid if they saw Ad Agencies inflating their prices to advertiser clients. Now they might be doing the same thing. In fact, it's a condition for Ad Agencies not to behave like that in the original Ad Agency licence agreements with the same media. And yet, it seems, that's now how media will operate in this deal - if they accept it.

In this YouTube case now, the advertiser would be paying a very probably, higher inflated price to the TV network for their YouTube advertising because the TV network will want to exceed the YouTube "cap". The more they get from advertisers, through higher pricing, the more they keep.

In order to "blur" these transactions, I'd expect to see the TV networks hide from transparency by "bundling" the YouTube airtime with other advertising as "packages". Which ironically, they in turn will probably try to sell on to Ad Agencies!

So if it's accepted, it's a very dark, dubious practice to say the least. And reflects badly on YouTube for suggesting it. For facilitating it. For encouraging it. 

If of course, I'm not misunderstanding it.
Doubt it.....

Monday, 4 November 2013

Blackberry deal is off. Shares start to tank again. The death spiral?



Uh oh, the Blackberry Sale has fallen through.

And its shares are tanking. Again.

It had hoped to sell itself to its biggest shareholder (holding 10%), Fairfax, whom were rumoured to have found difficulty in raising the finance for it. Blackberry is now looking to raise 1 billion usd elsewhere and CEO Thorsten Heins has stepped aside.

Although Fairfax have structured a financial 7 year deal to support the company, it won't be seen as enough.

Blackberry have already planned to cut 4,500 jobs, 40% of their work force.

Last month they reported a quarterly loss of nearly 1 billion usd but are sitting on cash of more than 1 billion which will get them through...for a while (another quarter loss like last quarter will do it).

One would expect though, that shares will plummet tomorrow.

And this is now, probably the start of what last year was termed, The Blackberry Death Spiral.

Newspapers see the Web as an opportunity for digital publishing. They're not sitting on their hands.




I've often said that the 'threat' of the web to newspapers doesn't have to be that - it can be an opportunity. 

One way, as I suggested in an earlier recent Blog, was to turn the huge online audience that newspapers get, into a shopping mall. Get the readers to buy and take a margin.

Another, is to create online publishing through dedicated 'imagazines'. The Irish Independent Group, Ireland's biggest newspaper publishers, are doing just that through a series of imags.

They create and publish online with more and more advertising support. Key to it is Video because it's one benefit that a newspaper publisher can offer online, which they can't offer in the printed version.

Their current edition called 'Lineout' (http://supplements.independent.ie/?xml=line%20out%20iMag%20&iid=83143) gives you a sense of the effort, money and quality that is being put into them. This is actually, their 6th edition. 

Generally, this one is about Rugby (although there's lots of lifestyle features in it) and I've listed some of the video here in case you're interested, which Streamabout produced for them. What they've been able to do is to use their clout (unlike say, a start-up could) to call on big names like the Irish out-half, Jonny Sexton;



And the aspiring out-half, Ian Madigan;



Or legends like Tommy Bowe;



Or Conor Murray;



Or Peter O'Mahony;



And so on. And by having such high profile names (there's lots more in it), they can then draw in high profile advertisers who want to be associated with it. So it really works.

Lineout is only one in what is an ever-growing series of imagazine online publishing. The Independent also bring to bear a huge resource in editorial with really experienced people (such as Bairbre Power the Editor of Lineout) who understand how to put it all together.

And of course, by placing it on their site (www.independent.ie) they instantly deliver views and impressions. Substantial views.

Newspapers are not sitting on their hands contemplating the threat of the internet. 

They are capitalising on it.

Friday, 1 November 2013

Big Wall Street pre-IPO interest in Twitter's IPO. Expect the market manipulation that follows.




Twitter's pre-IPO shares are already oversubscribed as their investor roadshows come to an end.


So it has attracted really strong Wall Street investor interest before it goes public in November (7th?). Which probably shows, as everyone said at the time, that the shares were underpriced (deliberately?) at 17-20 usd a share and selling 70 million of them, raising about a billion usd. 

So all this means is that stockbrokers and investors see an opportunity to make money from Twitter, for themselves.

Those Stockbrokers (supposedly on behalf of clients, but they're not) that have committed to the stock from Wall Street, will now start sending out 'buy' recommendations, wait and see, to cover their own position. You're also hearing reports from Wall Street of potential upsides of +45% and target pricing of 29 dollars. Real positive PR follows pre-IPO activity like this to boost the price.

What they're doing, is convincing people to buy and thereby inflating the price and thereby making a profit for themselves. They'll talk it up. Watch it.

It's market manipulation, that's all, as they try to stir up enough interest to give themselves a gain. These boys will be offloading asap - same day probably - whilst encouraging longer term stayers - like you.

So now Twitter will probably price itself at the higher end of the 20 Dollar range and/or sell more than 70 million shares. So the pre-IPO investors will get an immediate return on opening day. 

If you don't understand the market and the way it is constantly manipulated, stay a millions miles away. These people make money off your lack of knowledge and they actually call you 'mugs'. They are in it for themselves.

Either way, it looks like a real 'dot com' IPO. Already showing this level of interest, means it's going upwards on the day. But for how long? 

Or it's another complete Facebook IPO sham.

(UPDATE - Twitter shares will be priced between 23 and 25 Dollars when it floats on the NYSE next Thursday) 

Thursday, 31 October 2013

Flights will allow devices on Take-off and Landings. Delta already have started.



You'll soon be able to use your Ipad, Ipod, Mobile, Kindle and any electronic device for take offs and landings on planes according to Mashable.

Although you won't be able to make calls for the duration ('airplane mode' still applies) and the rule doesn't apply to heavier items such as laptops which still have to remain off.

Whilst this week's FAA announcement (the airline industry ruling body) applies to the USA, it's almost automatic it will be followed across Europe. Delta Airlines have said they'll introduce it from Nov 1.

It follows an industry panel where they've established that the radio interference of such devices is well within tolerable limits for modern aircraft. Each airline will do some tests on their own fleets but it's good news for Mums and Dads to try to keep the kids occupied for the whole flight. And in some ways, that has benefits to cabin crew too.

For those of us who don't like flying (me!), it's great to keep occupied as the plane takes off and there's no doubt, that in-flight phone calls are coming - but Airlines see those as a potential revenue source.

I can almost hear the tweets already. 
"Delighted to be one of the first to....blah, blah, blah".

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

LinkedIn has more users than Twitter. 259 million monthly active users. But it's still losing money.



LinkedIn announced this week that it has 259 million monthly active users.

That's significant growth, up nearly 20 million quarter on quarter and up from 187 million last year. So more people are using LinkedIn actively.

Firstly, it may reflect the general downturn as businesspeople have more time on their hands and secondly, they're looking for better business opportunities.

However, it may also reflect that LinkedIn is more popular and it's just natural, organic growth. It puts LinkedIn ahead of Twitter (230 million active monthly users). That astonishes me anyway.

Even more astonishing is that LinkedIn lags behind the dreadful Google+ (300 million active monthly users) which I can only think is because most of us are forced into Google+. It's hard to find one deliberate active user that I know anyway who actively uses Google+. 

LinkedIn posted strong revenues too of 393 million usd although Q4 forecasts were lower than expected. 62% of the revenue is still US based so LinkedIn needs to bring in more revenue from the 200+ countries in which it operates.

Those countries are only accounting for 38% of revenue combined. An opportunity?

That said, it's still good revenue, still strong.

A quarterly loss of over 3 million usd, isn't and I just can't understand how, like Amazon, these companies can't turn profits on such extraordinarily high revenues?

And if LinkedIn continues to grow its active members in the way that it clearly is, revenue uplifts must follow. They have a core market of businesspeople which in itself, has a premium value outside of just "the numbers" say compared to a Twitter.

So in a way, it's a premium Social Network.
A growing premium Social Network.
That needs to stop losing money.