Netflix. The Trial of The Chicago 7.

 Just out on Netflix and getting a lot of talkability largely because it's true.

It's a court room drama in essence, regarding Nixon era Vietnam protests and the trial of 7 protest leaders. Political as much as legal.

Really nicely done, informative but to be honest, not terribly exciting. Sacha Cohen does well. Kinda worth a look but the publicity around it seems bigger than the show. 

At least you know it's there! 

Simple copy and paste of this report today from 'AdExchanger'. Viewing habits changing....

Coronavirus shelter-in-place orders have been in place for less than a month nationally, but consumer media habits are already massively changing.

Streaming is the clear winner of social distancing. From March 9 to March 16, total streaming time grew to 156.1 billion minutes per day in the United States, compared to 127.6 billion minutes during the last week of February, per Nielsen. 

In March, streaming accounted for 23% of consumer TV viewing time, up from 21% in February and 14% a year ago.

Meanwhile, live TV viewing grew between 1% and 3% during the last week of March across all demos, while streaming increased by up to 8% during the same time period. NBCU saw an 80% spike in viewership across its digital assets in March compared to a 20% increase in linear TV viewing.

Homebound people are streaming more TV during the daytime. Streaming between 10 am to 5 pm grew 39% during the week of March 17 to 23, compared to the previous week, Conviva found. Meanwhile, prime-time viewing declined by as much as 5% between 8 pm and 11 pm.

“Prime time is starting nine hours earlier than normal,” said Conviva CEO Bill Demas. “Even if people are working from home and kids are distance-learning, streaming accelerates at 10 am and goes throughout the day.”

In APAC, where people are slowly getting back to work, streaming hours decreased 10% between March 17 and 23, according to Conviva. That dip offers a preview of what may happen in other regions as lockdown restrictions ease.

“Streaming will go down as people go back to work,” Demas said. “But the rollback into work will take months. How many habits are formed in that time because people got used to streaming?”

Ad dollars, however, are likely to lag until the economy gets back on track and the industry creates a common currency and measurement standard for streaming that brands can trust.

What are people watching?

Netflix is the SVOD player gaining the most traction, with people spending 29% of their total streaming minutes with the platform during the week of March 16, per Nielsen. Nine of the top 10 streamed shows during the second week of March are on Netflix.

Netflix is followed by YouTube, where people are spending 20% of their streaming minutes, followed by Hulu at 10% and Amazon at 9%.

But 31% of streaming minutes are spent on other platforms, meaning that ad-supported viewing could be seeing a boon as the economy crumbles.

Well-funded, top-tier players such as Netflix and Amazon appear to be best-positioned to weather the storm, as are smartly packaged bundles such as the $13-per-month Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN combo.

What about linear?

Without live sports, linear TV is hanging on by the thread of local news and increased daytime viewing during the pandemic.

Viewing of live local news grew 7% across demos from early February to the week of March 9, with adults over 25 spending 30.4% of their TV consumption time watching local news during the same period, according to Nielsen. 

Ratings increased 3.5% to 12.5% across local markets as more people tune into the news to find out what’s happening where they live.

Daytime cable news viewing skyrocketed 347% year over year during the last week of March, growing 50% more than total TV viewing time during the same period, according to Samba TV.

But people are also turning to social media for local news. During March, local news engagement climbed 196% on Twitter, 62% on YouTube, 34% on Instagram and 15% on Facebook, according to Conviva.

“Local news is so important because every area is [responding] differently,” Demas said. “But when the pandemic ends, is local news less vital or urgent?”

Linear TV will also be hit by a lack of live sports. Roku found viewers who watched live NHL and NBA games in February increased their streaming time between 58% and 63% in the first three weeks of March, while their linear TV viewing was flat.

If the NFL season can’t start on time this year, linear TV might be in even more trouble.

“The main driver of linear TV is NFL football,” Demas said. “Where is NFL football come August and September?”

YouTube overtakes TV for 18-34 year olds. No surprise unless you're in the TV Propaganda Dept.

YouTube is bigger than TV and they're going to prove it.

A study due later this week, will take data from Comscore and BARB to show that YouTube reaches more 18-34 year old Brits, than any other commercial TV Channel. It's based on an analysis of 'monthly averages' in Q1 2016.

YouGov in a survey of 16-34 year olds recently showed that 41% would pick YouTube over TV (only 27% prefer TV). 58% found things they are passionate about on YouTube....but if you've kids, you'll know that already. Common sense. 

There are 190 YouTube UK Channels with more than 1 Million subscribers each - a +50% jump on last year. Simply because it's obviously easy to find what you're looking for on YouTube and not on scheduled, linear TV.

So if you want to reach this younger, important demographic, you need to switch advertising money off TV and onto YouTube.

And if you want to be active on YouTube, get a video!

Streamabout.com

Television Effectiveness Versus Digital Video? The Mad Debate.

It's a worrying time when the debate about Television being more effective than Digital still labours on. Nastily.

I don't know how many traditional TV Campaigns we've managed in our pasts..... If it's not in the thousands, it's certainly in the hundreds and that doesn't necessarily gives us authority, but it does give us experience. Saying that too as the author is both a former Madison Avenuer and Fellow of The Advertising Institute. Agency blue-blood.

And how many Digital Video Campaigns have we managed? Thousands too.

But this debate seems to become angry with Traditionalists Versus Digital Evangelists whereas really what matters, is what is the audience doing? 

Where are the eyeballs going?

The TV traditionalists seem to blindly like TV, because that's the way it's always been done without understanding, that the world, their world, has changed 360 degrees.

Clearly too, one is not a substitute for the other, despite traditional TV data produced (and paid for) by TV Broadcasters which is dubious, at best.

It's common sense to understand that the TV audience is in decline.

With the high penetration of Social Media (Facebook, Twitter) predominant and with their peak usage in evening times, has to mean less TV is being watched. You can't be actively doing both.

The increasing high penetration of Ad-free streaming services (Netflix has over 250,000 homes in Ireland alone) which are watched at peak time, has to mean less TV viewing. 

The cable chord cutters are watching less TV too de facto. The prevalence of second screen viewing, must mean less TV is being watched. The huge growth in YouTube especially amongst the youngers, means they're watching less TV.

The decline in published ratings, means less TV is being watched in itself albeit, US broadcasters are now dependent on live sports rather than traditional "shows".

The growth of Apps (Tinder for example) at the very least, diminishes the OTS (opportunity to see) of TV. The growth of Mobile activity takes away from TV viewing. Better broadband brings homes more digital viewing opportunities as well. The Ipad and ITunes. 

And so on it goes on, common sense. The more distractions, especially at key peak time (high advertising expenditure times), the more TV viewing will decline. 

It struck us in this week especially, what a great example of video effectiveness this was.

In less than two days, this online digital video topped over 100 million views and is now Facebook's most video live video ever. We have no doubt it is already over 200 million views.

The Hasbro mask (44.99 usd) sold out (http://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/chewbacca-mask-sold-online-womans-video-super-viral/story?id=39292349)

And the Media cost? Zero. Nothing. Nada. Except the cost of producing the video.

Now what TV Campaign could deliver that audience? None. 

And at what cost? Certainly millions of dollars if you could achieve it using TV.... which you can't.

And the one big reason? Shareability. 

You can't share a TV Commercial and that's one big downside of traditional TV viewing (despite audience numbers) where Digital has the advantage (as this video shows).

Not only can it be shared, but to a like-minded demographic (friends and followers), a marketers dream in fact. Thereby, effectively communicating the message exactly to the target. 

So when we talk about TV Advertising effectiveness, let's not kid ourselves because we want Clients to keep thinking it....in our own vested interest, or, because we can't keep up with the digital age.....

And let's not argue blindly.

There's a role for both, absolutely. 

One is growing, one is declining, but all that means is that the eyeballs are switching. And as marketers or Ad men and girls, that's what should concern us most. 

Rather than defend a position because it's all we know. What are we afraid of here? It's good news because online video creates new, long form opportunity. No longer are we hampered by that 30 second Commercial length for example which should nurture creativity. 

Stopping Digital Video is like standing on Dollymount Strand and trying to push out the waves. 

Let's not do that and let's give the correct answer to Clients. Impartial arbitors of media.

Like the peasant's in Lamb's essay, we know not how to roast pork, other than to burn the house down. 

Streamabout.com

1.3 Million UK Homes have no TV. New BARB data.

People are watching less and less TV so they're not even buying one.

New UK Barb figures (the TV measurement group) show that in the UK over 1.3 million homes don't have a traditional TV simply because they want online video like Amazon and Netflix. That's 4.7% of homes in 2015.

That actually tallies in Streamabout, where 2 crew members have no TV for over a year. They simply say, when asked, 'Well, Why would I?'. Fair enough.

Nearly a quarter (24%) of UK Homes subscribe to an online broadcaster and that's up in a year from 14%. Netflix is the dominant brand with growth of 1.5 million UK subscribers last year alone.

We've blogged and blogged about the decline in TV audiences, despite broadcasters issuing dubious statements to the contrary. But not buying a TV set in the home is another very clear indicator of the TV decline. If you don't have a TV you can't access TV stations except for the few broadcasting free online).

And the markets know it, hence the declines in broadcasters share prices. The top 10 US TV shows last year, featured only 2 Shows and a massive 8 live Sports. Broadband speeds and penetration zoom on, as does online choice.

The game is up and online video marches on thankfully. The truth needs to be told by the broadcasters and their representative bodies to advertisers. Advertisers need to move quicker, online to video.

Vice Media launches Viceland TV.

Vice Media has launched its cable TV channel 'Viceland' but it's also more 'multi device'. So it's viewable across multi platforms rather than just through Cable TV.

It will carry about 9 minutes of Ads in an hour and already has advertiser support from Clients like Toyota, Diageo, Unilever, Bank of America who are more into targeting that younger demographic.

Their main focus though is 'native ads' so yet again, we see the demise of the traditional 30 second commercial in favour of online video. Good. 

Traditional TV Ads are working less online than properly generated interesting content.

But Vice are hoping to move away from an output that features a barrage of Ads and makes the advertiser branding more engaging - more part of the programming. Bank of America for example, are looking at content that revolves around 'financial literacy' so useful stuff rather than 'Ads'.

Valued at over 4.5 Billion usd, it's a big foray for Vice Media. Success though, favours the brave.

The Television world has changed. Media meltdown from the markets.

Investors this week are re-assessing the value of TV.

The TV business is in trouble on two fronts - Firstly from disruptive technology that's ad-free (Netflix) and therefore, declining audiences (bringing less Advertising) and now, from the markets. A perfect storm.

Shares in Viacom, Time Warner, CBS, Fox were all hit last week, greater than the general market declines. Viacom for example, was -25% down, having reported declines in revenue, profit and income.

Disney, who are very diversified with blockbuster movies, even took a hit because of their dependence on TV. Time Warner took a hit because of its loss of subscribers/viewers. Yet, Netflix audiences surge to nearly 50 million in the US.

The problem with traditional TV continues, as viewers have now more (and better) options. 

Whether that's online broadcasting (Netflix, Amazon) or Apps (snapchat, vine) or spending time on Social Media (Twitter, Facebook) or Second screen viewing whilst watching TV - they're simply watching less. That means in turn, less advertising (because advertising money follows audience) and less subscribers (I use it less so why should I pay for it).

Audience ratings of prime shows (which you'll see peppered in this blog) are in steep decline with Nielsen reporting that 25 of the top 35 channels attracted lower audiences in 2015. Shows are in decline too. That's despite the TV industry trying to convince us otherwise through spurious data analysis.

According to The FT, "Wall Street has belatedly realised that the television world has changed. It is unlikely that the latest media meltdown will be the last" and indeed, that reporting will also be self-prophecy.

Of course too, TV is being replaced. By online digital video, something which Streamabout knows so well.

Irish Independent and Ad Age reports today on TV audience massive declines. Ads must switch to online digital video.

The growing crisis in TV Ad slump of ratings, continues.

A Report today in The Irish independent, "TV ads slump as viewers move to Netflix", showed a -25% slump in viewership from TAM (Nielsen) data in Ireland. Particularly acute amongst 15-34's and Housekeepers with children between 2013 and 2015.

Comreg also reported that 9% of Irish households have Netflix but a huge 18% of homes in Dublin have ad-free Netflix (which is the real market), spending a whopping 7 hours viewing a week. 

14% of those subscribers now no longer watch live traditional TV.

Therefore the traditional TV universe (the potential for an Irish audience to see Ads) has slumped.

We did of course know that, but it flies in the face of PR being put out by broadcasters claiming TV viewing remains static or growing. It isn't.

Just search 'TV' in the top left Search bar of this blog and you'll see many stories over many years, saying just that.

Today too, 'Ad Age' reports "No end in sight for TV ratings freefall..." again using Nielsen data to show that only 3 US shows year-on-year show ratings gain. NFL Football (live sports) being one of the three.

The average ratings decline, similar to Ireland, is -25%.

Of course, the story here is the switch to online digital video, growth that Streamabout only knows too well. And the Ad dollars will follow albeit at a slower pace. Indeed Facebook now reporting over 8 billion video views a day! In essence, they're broadcasting a Superbowl every day!

But what it does mean is that traditional TV broadcasters are going to have Ad sales difficulties unless they're state supported (RTE for example, receive circa 180 million euro from the Irish Government we believe).

Clients need to take cognisance too that TV is no longer the mainstay medium for brands - online video is. We can build brands, deliver more effective results and do it for less.

The TV game is up.

TV has simply become the delivery channel for live Sport only.

Adage, that bastion of all things Ad Agency, has a story showing that traditional TV in the USA has really just become the "delivery system" for the NFL.

Based on ratings, using Nielsen data, it shows that top rated programmes are all about Football live. The only other content that makes it, albeit in a relatively small way, is Season premieres or Republican debates.

So general entertainment per se, doesn't get a look in.

Pretty shocking if you're a TV broadcaster to see that all that supposed "rich" content you've developed, gets beaten by Football. 

For example, 'Supergirl' the newly well flagged show, ended up 71st on the list....'Empire' season premiere was 37th...'Walking Dead' a lowly 50.

Because entertainment is being watched online through video.
TV really is only about live broadcasts that you can't get online. Yet.

THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN

TV Show	Date	Viewers (in millions)
Fox National Game (Seahawks-Cowboys)	Nov. 1	29.4
NBC SNF Kickoff Game (Steelers-Patriots)	Sept. 10	27.4
Fox National Game (Cowboys-Eagles)	Sept. 20	27.2
NBC Sunday Night Football (Giants-Cowboys)	Sept. 13	26.8
NBC Sunday Night Football (Seahawks-Packer)	Sept 20	26.4
CBS National Game (Patriots-Cowboys)	Oct. 11	26.1
Fox National Game (Packers-49ers)	Oct. 4	25.9
CBS National Game (Chargers-Packers)	Oct. 18	25.0
Fox National Game (Cowboys-Giants)	Oct. 25	24.5
NBC Sunday Night Football (Cowboys-Saints)	Oct. 4	24.2
CBS National Game (Broncos-Colts)	Nov. 8	24.0
Fox News Channel GOP Primary Debate	August 6	24.0
CBS National Game (Ravens-Broncos)	Sept. 13	23.3
CNN GOP Primary Debate	Sept. 16	23.1
NBC Sunday Night Football (Eagles-Cowboys)	Nov. 8	23.0
NBC Sunday Night Football (Packers-Broncos)	Nov. 1	23.0
NBC Sunday Night Football (Patriots-Colts)	Oct. 18	22.8
NBC Sunday Night Football (Broncos-Lions)	Sept. 27	22.1
CBS National Game (Bears-Seahawks)	Sept. 27	22.1
Thursday Night Football (Broncos-Chiefs)	Sept. 17	21.1
NBC Sunday Night Football (Eagles-Panthers)	Oct. 25	20.6
NBC Sunday Night Football (49ers-Giants)	Oct. 11	19.6
Thursday Night Football (Ravens-Steelers)	Oct. 1	19.4
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)	Sept. 21	18.2
NCIS	Sept. 22	18.2

Source: Nielsen
Chart by Chen Wu

Stock market hits out at Traditional TV. 37 Billion usd wiped off shares last week.

Following on from our blog of August 6th, about the decline in TV viewing as the audience moves to digital and the consequent shift in Ad budgets, it's now being reflected in TV companies stock.

Last week, 37 Billion usd was wiped from shares in Viacom, Time Warner, Fox, Walt Disney and 5 other major broadcasters. Viacom fell -8% on Wednesday and -14% Thursday being the worst hit.

Lower than expected quarterly earnings was one reason but underscoring it all, is the disruption being caused by YouTube, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix (63 million subscribers) and others, as they erode traditional TV subscriptions. It's now a structural issue in the ongoing shift away from live TV as well as, a shift to lower subscriptions online.

Of course, some large media organisations (such as RTE in Ireland) are immune from these market shifts as they receive state support (probably 200 million euro a year for RTE). One questions why and how long that will last?

In the same week, The New York Times reported lower than expected quarterly revenue too including a fall in print advertising sales. Again, the switch to digital platforms is the key here as their traditional revenue fell -12.8% but their digital revenue was up +14.2%. Up, but not by enough to compensate. Still, they brought in 148 million usd.

So the market is starting to question the future role of traditional media companies in the digital age. 

The corollary of that, is that you're likely to see a rise in the stock of digital media companies filling the gap. But definitively, for traditional TV specially, the game is up.

The most shocking reliable data I've seen on the switch away from TV to online. Terrifying reading for TV Stations.

I got this BusinessInsider/Comscore story about BuzzFeed today from a friend, by email. When I opened it, I fell off my chair.

Which is why he sent it.

The most stunning thing I've read yet, that just symbolises the online revolution that has and is, taking place. It's proof positive now, of the takeover and the switchover from TV to online.

Just look at the monthly reach of BuzzFeed in this graph for 18-34's.

Shocking stuff for TV Stations....

BuzzFeed now reaches 50% of US millennials (18-34's) a month according to Comscore/BusinessInsider and this is terrifying reading for TV. 

BuzzFeeds monthly reach outstrips CBS, Fox and NBC.

In fact it's winning in all ages and spelling the end of TV in terms of audience decline, audience attention but notably in terms of advertising money. And be assured, exactly this same model is being replicated in every country including Ireland. The same thing is happening everywhere. 

Put simply, advertising money chases audience and as BuzzFeed climbs it will take those big brand lucrative TV dollars with it. Whilst the TV stations will go into financial decline through that same lost advertising. They simply cannot hold their audiences no longer.

Look too above, at the BuzzFeed video views and Subscriber growth!!! Pretty impressive!!!

50% of the views are from mobile. And those video views are peaking for BuzzFeed in the evening. That's right, smack dab in the middle of prime time TV. The expensive advertising bit.

And that signals a strong probability that the younger 18-34's are having a look at BuzzFeed....during the evening ad breaks! Not what an advertiser wants to hear.

And as The BusinessInsider story says, advertisers want to reach consumers with messages that have sight, sound and motion. Those advantages don't just apply to TV anymore.

I've never seen reliable data like this, that clearly shows the media pulling power of digital and all of this happening in the lucrative TV space - once regarded as the bastion of all things advertising. 

And then we've only spoken here about the impact BuzzFeed has had - nevermind the others!

This ladies and gentlemen, is the end..... Or the start...... It depends on where you're sitting. 

But one thing it sure is, the world has just changed. Totally.